South Africa’s agricultural sector enters the 2026 production year under mounting pressure. A series of developments in 2025 — from stalled wheat tariff decisions to expanded imports of US poultry — have created deep uncertainty across the value chain. For grain growers and livestock producers alike, the year ahead will test resilience, financial stability, and the effectiveness of agricultural trade policy in safeguarding domestic food security.

While each commodity has its own challenges, the underlying problem is consistent across sectors: tariff mechanisms meant to stabilise local agriculture are either delayed, circumvented, or weakened by trade concessions, leaving producers exposed to volatile global markets and heavily subsidised foreign competition.

Wheat Farmers Brace for Another Uncertain Year

By mid-2025, South Africa’s wheat sector had reached what Grain SA called “a breaking point.” The prolonged delay — more than eighteen months — in reviewing the wheat import tariff left farmers operating far below sustainable levels. Global wheat prices continued to fall through 2024 and into 2025, while local producers waited for ITAC (International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa) to finalise the tariff reference price and update the publishing system proposed in 2024.

The seriousness of the delay became evident as import volumes increased during the local harvest period, directly undercutting domestic producers at their most vulnerable moment. With no updated tariff in place, South African farmers were forced to compete with low-cost, often subsidised wheat from abroad, eroding margins and weakening the long-term viability of wheat production.

Yet, 2025 brought a faint glimmer of relief. In June and July, SAGIS announced that the variable tariff formula had been triggered, pushing the wheat tariff from R549.50/tonne to R856.34/tonne — theoretically bolstering farmer protection ahead of the 2026 planting season.

But industry bodies warned that implementation delays remained a major obstacle. In previous cycles, tariff announcements had taken weeks or even months to appear in the Government Gazette, meaning that the protection arrived long after imports had already entered the market. Several analysts argued that although the formula was functioning, “sluggish implementation” continued to blunt its effectiveness.

For producers planning 2026 inputs — seed, fertiliser, diesel — this uncertainty is crippling. Wheat margins are already tightly compressed, and the absence of predictable tariff enforcement has made it nearly impossible for farmers to plan cashflows for the next season. Meanwhile, milling companies continued reporting stronger financial performance, underscoring a widening imbalance across the value chain.

The key risk for 2026 is therefore twofold:

1. Financial pressure may force a contraction in planted wheat area, threatening domestic supply.
2. Ongoing tariff instability could accelerate producer exit, especially among smaller and medium-sized operations.

Given that South Africa already produces barely half of the wheat it consumes, further erosion of local capacity would have long-term implications for national food security.

Poultry Sector Warns of Crisis as US Imports Rise in 2025

While crop farmers battled weak tariff protection, the poultry industry faced its own 2025 storm: an expansion of duty-free US chicken imports under the tariff-rate quota linked to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

By late 2025, the annual quota — originally around 65,000 tonnes — had been increased to approximately 72,000 tonnes, prompting strong backlash from South African producers. Industry leaders warned that cheap US bone-in portions, entering without the high tariffs normally applied to imports, were undermining the domestic market and depressing prices for local producers already facing elevated feed costs.

More concerning was that the quota expansion appeared to have been negotiated without sufficient consultation. Poultry representatives reported “radio silence” from policy-makers despite formally requesting clarity and urging reconsideration of the deal.

The consequences for 2026 could be severe:

• Some poultry operations were already running below capacity in 2025, with factories capable of processing millions of birds per week reportedly idle due to market saturation by imports.
• Producer margins tightened sharply, raising fears of job losses and potential farm closures.
• Investment in modernisation, disease-control infrastructure and expansion slowed dramatically, as long-term confidence weakened.

Adding to the strain were biosecurity concerns. Several industry voices condemned concessions that allowed the US to self-declare bird flu risk levels for its own poultry exports. With Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) intensifying globally in 2025, local farmers warned that insufficient oversight could expose South Africa to catastrophic outbreaks.

The poultry sector enters 2026 not only under pricing pressure but also facing heightened disease risk — a combination that threatens thousands of jobs and the country’s most widely consumed source of animal protein.

Two Sectors, One Problem: An Unstable Trade-Policy Environment

The stories emerging from the wheat and poultry industries through 2025 highlights systemic issues in South Africa’s agricultural trade framework. Three key themes stand out.

1. Tariff systems are slow, inconsistent, or undermined

In wheat, tariff adjustments were repeatedly delayed or bogged down in methodology reviews. In poultry, duty-free quotas allowed US imports to bypass tariff protections entirely. In both cases, domestic producers bore the brunt of policy uncertainty.

2. Value-chain imbalance is widening

2025 financial results showed a stark contrast:

• Processors and importers often saw improved margins.
• Primary producers — both grain and poultry — faced declining profitability and rising risk.

This misalignment threatens the entire agri-food structure. Without viable farmers, the downstream processing sector will ultimately lose its foundational input supply.

3. Policy lacks transparency and sufficient stakeholder consultation

Wheat producers waited over a year for a tariff response, while poultry producers learned through media reports that import quotas had been expanded. Trust between government and primary agriculture deteriorated through 2025, and unless addressed urgently, this tension may worsen heading into 2026.

What It Means for Food Security and the 2026 Production Season

The 2025 developments point to a high-risk 2026 agricultural cycle. Predictions from industry analysts suggest:

Reduced wheat planting

With tariff instability and global prices still subdued, some producers may scale back wheat area or shift to alternative crops like maize or canola. These risks widen the national wheat deficit, increasing reliance on imports at a time of global climate uncertainty.

Strain on poultry production capacity

If cheap imports continue unchecked in 2026 — or rise further under the AGOA quota — local producers could reduce placement numbers, cut back shifts, or delay investments in barns and disease-control systems.

Job pressures in rural areas

Wheat farming supports rural economies across the Western Cape and Free State; poultry supports tens of thousands across multiple provinces. Any contraction will have cascading consequences for employment and local economies.

Greater exposure to global volatility

A decline in domestic production increases reliance on imports. With global markets unpredictable due to climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and disease risks, South Africa becomes more vulnerable to price spikes and supply disruptions.

A Narrow Window for Policy Correction

Agricultural organisations agree that the 2026 season will hinge on decisions made in the next few months. Their recommendations include:

• Immediate implementation of the new wheat tariff reference price and automated publication system.
• A transparent review of the US poultry import quota, including consultation with producers.
• Restoring full state oversight of biosecurity controls for all poultry imports.
• A consistent, predictable tariff framework that protects producers without disproportionately burdening consumers.
• Investment incentives to encourage long-term confidence in domestic production.

The message from both wheat and poultry producers is unambiguous: South Africa needs a unified, responsive agricultural-trade policy — not fragmented, slow or contradictory interventions.

The Stakes for 2026 Could Not Be Higher

As the agricultural sector prepares for the 2026 season, the lessons of 2025 must serve as a catalyst for reform. Producers across commodities are signalling the same warning: without timely, fair and transparent tariff structures, South Africa risks weakening the very foundation of its food system.

Wheat farmers cannot survive prolonged exposure to import pressure. Poultry producers cannot compete indefinitely with subsidised or duty-free imports. And the nation cannot afford to compromise food security at a time when global markets are more volatile than ever.

A new season brings opportunity — but only if policymakers respond with urgency and clarity. The future of South Africa’s capacity to feed itself depends on itself.